LOW
<10% · score 1.0 · 4.0 to ELEVATED
score · 90 days
Bank lending standards1.70%
Nowcast: Sahm — states 6
An open monitor of US recession risk: leading FRED indicators are scored against historical thresholds and combined into a composite 12-month outlook — published daily, fully reproducible, self-audited weekly.
All signals
| Bank lending standards | 1.70% | watch |
| Yield curve inversion (10Y–3M) | 0.67 pp | OK |
| Yield curve inversion (10Y–2Y) | 0.38 pp | OK |
| Curve re-steepening | 0.67 pp | OK |
| NY Fed recession probability | 16.44 pp | OK |
| Financial conditions (NFCI) | -0.46 | OK |
| Financial stress (STLFSI) | -0.52 | OK |
| High-yield credit spread | 3.48% | OK |
| BBB corporate spread | 1.16% | OK |
| Building permits | 1.4M | OK |
| Housing starts | 1.2M | OK |
| Durable goods orders | $345,371M | OK |
| Initial jobless claims | 195k | OK |
| Continued claims | 1718k | OK |
| Temporary help employment | 2.5M | OK |
| JOLTS labor flows | 7.5M | OK |
| CFNAI activity index | 0.04 | OK |
| Industrial production | 103.95 | OK |
| Nowcast | ||
| Sahm — states | 6 | warning |
| Sahm rule | 0.00 pp | OK |
| Recession probability (Chauvet–Piger) | 0.40% | OK |
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Informational data only — not investment advice. Historical frequencies do not guarantee future results.