2026-W40
published 2026-10-04
🔍 Self-audit — 2026-W40 Snapshot history starts 2025-10-05 — earlier weeks: n/a Signal record (replay, latest data): ▸ Initial jobless claims — 25 ep: 5✓ / 20✗ ▸ Industrial production — 24 ep: 2✓ / 22✗ ▸ Building permits — 20 ep: 5✓ / 14✗ · 1 open ▸ Continued claims — 17 ep: 6✓ / 11✗ ▸ Housing starts — 14 ep: 4✓ / 10✗ Totals: 60 hit · 149 false-positive · 2 pending — earliest closes 2026-11 Methodology: an episode is a contiguous non-ok run (≥6 quiet months separates episodes); a hit means an NBER recession began within 12m of onset (nowcast: within −3/+6m). Data: FRED + NBER.
Personal alerts in the bot
This page updates when the site rebuilds — the bot messages you the moment a signal fires. Alerts and the weekly digest are free; Plus adds custom thresholds, quiet hours and point-in-time episode replays.
Get alerts in Telegram — @us_recession_chance_bot