https://lexa070301.github.io/us_recession_chance/feed-en.xml US Recession Chance 2026-11-06T19:59:09Z urn:usrecessionchance:en:d:2026-11-06 2026-11-06T19:59:09Z <pre>📋 Daily recession-signal digest — 2026-11-06 📊 Recession risk: LOW Model: <10% in 12m · score 1.0 · 4.0 to ELEVATED · 1 active signal ▸ Active (1): 👀 Bank lending standards 1.70% ⏱ Nowcast: ⚠️ Sahm — states 🤖 Telegram bot @us_recession_chance_bot — instant alerts, custom score thresholds, nowcast signals & per-signal analytics (Plus)</pre> urn:usrecessionchance:en:d:2026-11-05 2026-11-05T20:43:00Z <pre>📋 Daily recession-signal digest — 2026-11-05 📊 Recession risk: LOW Model: <10% in 12m · score 1.0 · 4.0 to ELEVATED · 1 active signal ▸ Active (1): 👀 Bank lending standards 1.70% ⏱ Nowcast: ⚠️ Sahm — states 🤖 Telegram bot @us_recession_chance_bot — instant alerts, custom score thresholds, nowcast signals & per-signal analytics (Plus)</pre> urn:usrecessionchance:en:d:2026-11-04 2026-11-04T20:27:50Z <pre>📋 Daily recession-signal digest — 2026-11-04 📊 Recession risk: LOW Model: <10% in 12m · score 1.0 · 4.0 to ELEVATED · 1 active signal ▸ Active (1): 👀 Bank lending standards 1.70% ⏱ Nowcast: ⚠️ Sahm — states 🤖 Telegram bot @us_recession_chance_bot — instant alerts, custom score thresholds, nowcast signals & per-signal analytics (Plus)</pre> urn:usrecessionchance:en:d:2026-11-03 2026-11-03T20:09:59Z <pre>📋 Daily recession-signal digest — 2026-11-03 📊 Recession risk: LOW Model: <10% in 12m · score 1.0 · 4.0 to ELEVATED · 1 active signal ⚡ Changes: 👀 Bank lending standards → 1.70% ▸ Active (1): 👀 Bank lending standards 1.70% ⏱ Nowcast: ⚠️ Sahm — states 🤖 Telegram bot @us_recession_chance_bot — instant alerts, custom score thresholds, nowcast signals & per-signal analytics (Plus)</pre> urn:usrecessionchance:en:d:2026-11-02 2026-11-02T22:22:40Z <pre>📋 Daily recession-signal digest — 2026-11-02 📊 Recession risk: LOW Model: <10% in 12m · score 1.0 · 4.0 to ELEVATED · 1 active signal ⚡ Changes: 👀 Bank lending standards → 1.70% ▸ Active (1): 👀 Bank lending standards 1.70% ⏱ Nowcast: ⚠️ Sahm — states 🤖 Telegram bot @us_recession_chance_bot — instant alerts, custom score thresholds, nowcast signals & per-signal analytics (Plus)</pre> urn:usrecessionchance:en:a:2026-W44 2026-11-01T18:27:50Z <pre>🔍 Self-audit — 2026-W44 Snapshot history starts 2025-11-02 — earlier weeks: n/a Signal record (replay, latest data): ▸ Initial jobless claims — 25 ep: 5✓ / 20✗ ▸ Industrial production — 24 ep: 2✓ / 22✗ ▸ Building permits — 20 ep: 5✓ / 14✗ · 1 open ▸ Continued claims — 17 ep: 6✓ / 11✗ ▸ Housing starts — 14 ep: 4✓ / 10✗ Totals: 60 hit · 149 false-positive · 2 pending — earliest closes 2026-11 Methodology: an episode is a contiguous non-ok run (≥6 quiet months separates episodes); a hit means an NBER recession began within 12m of onset (nowcast: within −3/+6m). Data: FRED + NBER.</pre> urn:usrecessionchance:en:w:2026-W44 2026-11-01T18:27:42Z <pre>📋 Weekly dashboard — 2026-W44 📊 Recession risk: LOW Model: <10% in 12m · score 0.0 · 5.0 to ELEVATED · ≈ WoW ▇▇▇▇▇▁▁▁ ⏱ Nowcast: ⚠️ Sahm — states 📖 Read more: https://telegra.ph/Weekly-dashboard--2026-W44-11-01 · https://lexa070301.github.io/us_recession_chance 🤖 Telegram bot @us_recession_chance_bot — instant alerts, custom score thresholds, nowcast signals & per-signal analytics (Plus)</pre> urn:usrecessionchance:en:d:2026-11-01 2026-11-01T18:27:41Z <pre>📋 Daily recession-signal digest — 2026-11-01 📊 Recession risk: LOW Model: <10% in 12m · score 0.0 · 5.0 to ELEVATED · no changes ⏱ Nowcast: ⚠️ Sahm — states 🤖 Telegram bot @us_recession_chance_bot — instant alerts, custom score thresholds, nowcast signals & per-signal analytics (Plus)</pre> urn:usrecessionchance:en:d:2026-10-31 2026-10-31T17:49:26Z <pre>📋 Daily recession-signal digest — 2026-10-31 📊 Recession risk: LOW Model: <10% in 12m · score 0.0 · 5.0 to ELEVATED · no changes ⏱ Nowcast: ⚠️ Sahm — states 🤖 Telegram bot @us_recession_chance_bot — instant alerts, custom score thresholds, nowcast signals & per-signal analytics (Plus)</pre> urn:usrecessionchance:en:d:2026-10-30 2026-10-30T18:40:34Z <pre>📋 Daily recession-signal digest — 2026-10-30 📊 Recession risk: LOW Model: <10% in 12m · score 0.0 · 5.0 to ELEVATED · no changes ⏱ Nowcast: ⚠️ Sahm — states 🤖 Telegram bot @us_recession_chance_bot — instant alerts, custom score thresholds, nowcast signals & per-signal analytics (Plus)</pre> urn:usrecessionchance:en:d:2026-10-29 2026-10-29T19:01:01Z <pre>📋 Daily recession-signal digest — 2026-10-29 📊 Recession risk: LOW Model: <10% in 12m · score 0.0 · 5.0 to ELEVATED · no changes ⏱ Nowcast: ⚠️ Sahm — states 🤖 Telegram bot @us_recession_chance_bot — instant alerts, custom score thresholds, nowcast signals & per-signal analytics (Plus)</pre> urn:usrecessionchance:en:d:2026-10-28 2026-10-28T18:55:54Z <pre>📋 Daily recession-signal digest — 2026-10-28 📊 Recession risk: LOW Model: <10% in 12m · score 0.0 · 5.0 to ELEVATED · no changes ⏱ Nowcast: ⚠️ Sahm — states 🤖 Telegram bot @us_recession_chance_bot — instant alerts, custom score thresholds, nowcast signals & per-signal analytics (Plus)</pre> urn:usrecessionchance:en:d:2026-10-27 2026-10-27T18:45:57Z <pre>📋 Daily recession-signal digest — 2026-10-27 📊 Recession risk: LOW Model: <10% in 12m · score 0.0 · 5.0 to ELEVATED · no changes ⏱ Nowcast: ⚠️ Sahm — states 🤖 Telegram bot @us_recession_chance_bot — instant alerts, custom score thresholds, nowcast signals & per-signal analytics (Plus)</pre> urn:usrecessionchance:en:d:2026-10-26 2026-10-26T19:24:11Z <pre>📋 Daily recession-signal digest — 2026-10-26 📊 Recession risk: LOW Model: <10% in 12m · score 0.0 · 5.0 to ELEVATED · no changes ⏱ Nowcast: ⚠️ Sahm — states 🤖 Telegram bot @us_recession_chance_bot — instant alerts, custom score thresholds, nowcast signals & per-signal analytics (Plus)</pre> urn:usrecessionchance:en:a:2026-W43 2026-10-25T17:06:21Z <pre>🔍 Self-audit — 2026-W43 Snapshot history starts 2025-10-26 — earlier weeks: n/a Signal record (replay, latest data): ▸ Initial jobless claims — 25 ep: 5✓ / 20✗ ▸ Industrial production — 24 ep: 2✓ / 22✗ ▸ Building permits — 20 ep: 5✓ / 14✗ · 1 open ▸ Continued claims — 17 ep: 6✓ / 11✗ ▸ Housing starts — 14 ep: 4✓ / 10✗ Totals: 60 hit · 149 false-positive · 2 pending — earliest closes 2026-11 Methodology: an episode is a contiguous non-ok run (≥6 quiet months separates episodes); a hit means an NBER recession began within 12m of onset (nowcast: within −3/+6m). Data: FRED + NBER.</pre> urn:usrecessionchance:en:w:2026-W43 2026-10-25T17:06:14Z <pre>📋 Weekly dashboard — 2026-W43 📊 Recession risk: LOW Model: <10% in 12m · score 0.0 · 5.0 to ELEVATED · ▼ -1.0 WoW ▇▇▇▇▇▁▁ ⚡ This week: ✅ Housing starts → 1.2M ⏱ Nowcast: ⚠️ Sahm — states 📖 Read more: https://telegra.ph/Weekly-dashboard--2026-W43-10-25 · https://lexa070301.github.io/us_recession_chance 🤖 Telegram bot @us_recession_chance_bot — instant alerts, custom score thresholds, nowcast signals & per-signal analytics (Plus)</pre> urn:usrecessionchance:en:d:2026-10-25 2026-10-25T17:06:13Z <pre>📋 Daily recession-signal digest — 2026-10-25 📊 Recession risk: LOW Model: <10% in 12m · score 0.0 · 5.0 to ELEVATED · no changes ⏱ Nowcast: ⚠️ Sahm — states 🤖 Telegram bot @us_recession_chance_bot — instant alerts, custom score thresholds, nowcast signals & per-signal analytics (Plus)</pre> urn:usrecessionchance:en:d:2026-10-24 2026-10-24T16:42:34Z <pre>📋 Daily recession-signal digest — 2026-10-24 📊 Recession risk: LOW Model: <10% in 12m · score 0.0 · 5.0 to ELEVATED · no changes ⏱ Nowcast: ⚠️ Sahm — states 🤖 Telegram bot @us_recession_chance_bot — instant alerts, custom score thresholds, nowcast signals & per-signal analytics (Plus)</pre> urn:usrecessionchance:en:d:2026-10-23 2026-10-23T17:54:15Z <pre>📋 Daily recession-signal digest — 2026-10-23 📊 Recession risk: LOW Model: <10% in 12m · score 0.0 · 5.0 to ELEVATED · no changes ⏱ Nowcast: ⚠️ Sahm — states 🤖 Telegram bot @us_recession_chance_bot — instant alerts, custom score thresholds, nowcast signals & per-signal analytics (Plus)</pre> urn:usrecessionchance:en:d:2026-10-22 2026-10-22T18:02:54Z <pre>📋 Daily recession-signal digest — 2026-10-22 📊 Recession risk: LOW Model: <10% in 12m · score 0.0 · 5.0 to ELEVATED · no changes ⏱ Nowcast: ⚠️ Sahm — states 🤖 Telegram bot @us_recession_chance_bot — instant alerts, custom score thresholds, nowcast signals & per-signal analytics (Plus)</pre> urn:usrecessionchance:en:d:2026-10-20 2026-10-20T18:04:47Z <pre>📋 Daily recession-signal digest — 2026-10-20 📊 Recession risk: LOW Model: <10% in 12m · score 0.0 · 5.0 to ELEVATED · 0 active signals ⚡ Changes: ✅ Housing starts → 1.2M ⏱ Nowcast: ⚠️ Sahm — states 🤖 Telegram bot @us_recession_chance_bot — instant alerts, custom score thresholds, nowcast signals & per-signal analytics (Plus)</pre> urn:usrecessionchance:en:d:2026-10-19 2026-10-19T19:23:30Z <pre>📋 Daily recession-signal digest — 2026-10-19 📊 Recession risk: LOW Model: <10% in 12m · score 1.0 · 4.0 to ELEVATED · 1 active signal ▸ Active (1): ⚠️ Housing starts 1.3M ⏱ Nowcast: ⚠️ Sahm — states 🤖 Telegram bot @us_recession_chance_bot — instant alerts, custom score thresholds, nowcast signals & per-signal analytics (Plus)</pre> urn:usrecessionchance:en:a:2026-W42 2026-10-18T16:36:34Z <pre>🔍 Self-audit — 2026-W42 Snapshot history starts 2025-10-19 — earlier weeks: n/a Signal record (replay, latest data): ▸ Initial jobless claims — 25 ep: 5✓ / 20✗ ▸ Industrial production — 24 ep: 2✓ / 22✗ ▸ Building permits — 20 ep: 5✓ / 14✗ · 1 open ▸ Continued claims — 17 ep: 6✓ / 11✗ ▸ Housing starts — 14 ep: 4✓ / 10✗ Totals: 60 hit · 149 false-positive · 2 pending — earliest closes 2026-11 Methodology: an episode is a contiguous non-ok run (≥6 quiet months separates episodes); a hit means an NBER recession began within 12m of onset (nowcast: within −3/+6m). Data: FRED + NBER.</pre> urn:usrecessionchance:en:w:2026-W42 2026-10-18T16:36:28Z <pre>📋 Weekly dashboard — 2026-W42 📊 Recession risk: LOW Model: <10% in 12m · score 1.0 · 4.0 to ELEVATED · ≈ WoW ▁▁▁▁▁ ▸ Active (1): ⚠️ Housing starts 1.3M ⏱ Nowcast: ⚠️ Sahm — states 📖 Read more: https://telegra.ph/Weekly-dashboard--2026-W42-10-18 · https://lexa070301.github.io/us_recession_chance 🤖 Telegram bot @us_recession_chance_bot — instant alerts, custom score thresholds, nowcast signals & per-signal analytics (Plus)</pre> urn:usrecessionchance:en:d:2026-10-18 2026-10-18T16:36:27Z <pre>📋 Daily recession-signal digest — 2026-10-18 📊 Recession risk: LOW Model: <10% in 12m · score 1.0 · 4.0 to ELEVATED · 1 active signal ▸ Active (1): ⚠️ Housing starts 1.3M ⏱ Nowcast: ⚠️ Sahm — states 🤖 Telegram bot @us_recession_chance_bot — instant alerts, custom score thresholds, nowcast signals & per-signal analytics (Plus)</pre> urn:usrecessionchance:en:d:2026-10-17 2026-10-17T16:30:39Z <pre>📋 Daily recession-signal digest — 2026-10-17 📊 Recession risk: LOW Model: <10% in 12m · score 1.0 · 4.0 to ELEVATED · 1 active signal ▸ Active (1): ⚠️ Housing starts 1.3M ⏱ Nowcast: ⚠️ Sahm — states 🤖 Telegram bot @us_recession_chance_bot — instant alerts, custom score thresholds, nowcast signals & per-signal analytics (Plus)</pre> urn:usrecessionchance:en:d:2026-10-16 2026-10-16T17:33:08Z <pre>📋 Daily recession-signal digest — 2026-10-16 📊 Recession risk: LOW Model: <10% in 12m · score 1.0 · 4.0 to ELEVATED · 1 active signal ▸ Active (1): ⚠️ Housing starts 1.3M ⏱ Nowcast: ⚠️ Sahm — states 🤖 Telegram bot @us_recession_chance_bot — instant alerts, custom score thresholds, nowcast signals & per-signal analytics (Plus)</pre> urn:usrecessionchance:en:d:2026-10-15 2026-10-15T17:49:00Z <pre>📋 Daily recession-signal digest — 2026-10-15 📊 Recession risk: LOW Model: <10% in 12m · score 1.0 · 4.0 to ELEVATED · 1 active signal ▸ Active (1): ⚠️ Housing starts 1.3M ⏱ Nowcast: ⚠️ Sahm — states 🤖 Telegram bot @us_recession_chance_bot — instant alerts, custom score thresholds, nowcast signals & per-signal analytics (Plus)</pre> urn:usrecessionchance:en:d:2026-10-14 2026-10-14T18:03:50Z <pre>📋 Daily recession-signal digest — 2026-10-14 📊 Recession risk: LOW Model: <10% in 12m · score 1.0 · 4.0 to ELEVATED · 1 active signal ▸ Active (1): ⚠️ Housing starts 1.3M ⏱ Nowcast: ⚠️ Sahm — states 🤖 Telegram bot @us_recession_chance_bot — instant alerts, custom score thresholds, nowcast signals & per-signal analytics (Plus)</pre> urn:usrecessionchance:en:d:2026-10-13 2026-10-13T19:54:34Z <pre>📋 Daily recession-signal digest — 2026-10-13 📊 Recession risk: LOW Model: <10% in 12m · score 1.0 · 4.0 to ELEVATED · 1 active signal ▸ Active (1): ⚠️ Housing starts 1.3M ⏱ Nowcast: ⚠️ Sahm — states 🤖 Telegram bot @us_recession_chance_bot — instant alerts, custom score thresholds, nowcast signals & per-signal analytics (Plus)</pre>