The 2007–09 recession was the deepest US downturn since the Great Depression: 18 months long, a housing bust metastasizing into a global banking crisis. Home prices had peaked in 2006, subprime losses were surfacing through 2007, and the NBER peak — December 2007 — predates the drama most people remember.
Three acts
Act one was a slow squeeze: housing indicators deteriorated through 2006–07 while equities kept rising. Act two was the financial heart attack — Bear Stearns in March 2008, then Lehman's collapse on September 15, 2008, which turned a housing recession into a global panic; credit markets froze within days. Act three was the real-economy cascade: world trade fell off a cliff, payrolls shed 700,000+ jobs per month in early 2009, and unemployment doubled to 10%.
The signal record
This is the panel's strongest historical performance: housing permits and starts warned from mid-2006 — roughly 18 months before the peak — credit conditions tightened through 2007, and the NFCI turned positive around the cycle peak before spiking violently after Lehman. The yield curve had inverted in 2006–07. Almost every forecast signal was active by the official start; the composite-style reading would have been in the severe band.