Signal episodes
Historical replay of every indicator: which signals fired around each recession, their peak severity, and how many caught the NBER turn.
- 1969–1970 — Post-Vietnam tightening
- 1973–1975 — Oil shock & stagflation
- 1980 — Volcker's first blow
- 1981–1982 — Volcker's second blow — the double dip
- 1990–1991 — Credit crunch & Gulf oil spike
- 2001 — Dot-com bust
- 2007–2009 — Great Recession
- 2020 — COVID-19
- 2023–2024 — Inversion scare — the false alarm
Personal alerts in the bot
This page updates when the site rebuilds — the bot messages you the moment a signal fires. Alerts and the weekly digest are free; Plus adds custom thresholds, quiet hours and point-in-time episode replays.
Get alerts in Telegram — @us_recession_chance_bot