Bear vs bull steepening
'Steepening' just describes the slope widening — but the cause flips its meaning. Bull steepening is short rates plunging as the Fed cuts into weakness: bond traders are buying duration against a downturn. Bear steepening is long rates rising — on inflation repricing, term-premium normalization, or fiscal supply.
Why the distinction matters
A curve can de-invert for good reasons (the bear path, if long rates normalize without growth damage) or bad ones (the bull path, where the Fed is already fighting a recession). The curve's level says 'normalizing'; the composition says whether to worry.
Reading it on this site
Our re-steepening signal watches the spread crossing back above zero — the historically ominous transition. For the mechanism, compare with the rate context: re-steepening driven by collapsing short rates has preceded recession onset far more often than re-steepening driven by rising long rates.