Glossary

The concepts behind recession watching, in plain language — from the signals this site tracks to the data methodology underneath.

How this site works

• The composite score
• Leading vs coincident signals
• How NBER dates recessions
• Data revisions & vintages

Anatomy of recessions

• The business cycle
• Soft landing
• Double-dip recession
• Growth recession
• Output gap

Yield curve & rates

• Yield curve inversion
• Yield curve re-steepening
• Bear vs bull steepening
• Treasury yields
• Term premium
• The federal funds rate
• QE and QT

Credit & financial conditions

• Credit spreads
• High-yield bonds
• Credit crunch
• Bank lending standards
• The NFCI
• Liquidity

Labor market

• The Sahm rule
• Jobless claims
• Nonfarm payrolls
• U-3 vs U-6 unemployment
• JOLTS and the quits rate
• Temporary help services

Real activity

• Industrial production
• Building permits & housing starts
• Durable goods orders
• ISM / PMI surveys
• GDP vs GDI

Inflation & prices

• CPI vs PCE inflation
• Core vs headline inflation
• Inflation breakevens
• Stagflation

Data & methodology

• Seasonal adjustment
• Nowcasting
• Base rates & false positives
• Hard vs soft data
• NY Fed recession probability

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