Jobless claims
Initial claims count people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time — a weekly, near-real-time count of layoffs. Continued claims count people still collecting benefits — a slower read on how hard it is to find the next job. Together they're the highest-frequency labor data published.
Initial vs continued
Initials spike at recession onset — the firing wave. Continueds rise later and stay elevated — the hiring freeze after the firing. 2020 made the distinction dramatic: initials exploded to 6 million in a week while continueds built over months. A downturn where continueds keep grinding up is deeper than one where initials spike and fade.
The 4-week average
Weekly claims are noisy — holidays, weather, backlog events all distort single prints. The four-week moving average is the standard filter and the input to this site's claims signals: it smooths noise without delaying the turn, catching the sustained rise that marks real labor deterioration.