Temporary help services
Temporary help is employment at staffing agencies — workers who can be released without severance, notice, or headline risk. That disposability makes it the labor market's leading edge: firms cut temps before they cut permanent staff.
Why it leads
Temps are procyclical by construction — they're the buffer firms build precisely to absorb downturns. Temp employment has peaked and turned down before every recession since 1990, typically by 6–12 months: demand weakens → temps go first → permanent layoffs follow only when the weakness proves durable.
On this monitor
The temp-help decline signal tracks sustained year-over-year contraction in the series — persistent enough to indicate real labor-market softening, not noise. It's one of the quieter signals on the panel but one of the earliest: by the time payrolls turn, temps have been falling for quarters.