Treasury yields
Treasury yields are the interest rates the US government pays to borrow — from 4-week bills to 30-year bonds. Because default risk is treated as zero, each maturity is a pure read on rate expectations, inflation compensation, and the term premium investors demand for duration.
Short end vs long end
The short end (3M–2Y) tracks expected Fed policy almost mechanically. The long end (10Y+) prices the entire future: growth expectations, inflation risk, term premium, and global demand for safe assets. The gap between them — the slope — is what makes the yield curve a signal.
Why we watch 10Y–3M and 10Y–2Y
The 10Y–3M spread is the Fed's preferred recession gauge — the New York Fed builds its recession-probability model on it. The 10Y–2Y is the market's favorite and reacts earlier. This site tracks both, because they occasionally disagree — and disagreement itself is information.