GDP vs GDI
GDP measures the economy from the spending side; GDI (gross domestic income) measures it from the income side — wages, profits, interest. In theory they're the same number; in practice they diverge by hundreds of billions and occasionally tell different stories about whether a recession has begun.
When they disagree
The 2022 episode made it famous: GDP contracted in Q1 and Q2 (the 'technical recession' headlines) while GDI grew — and GDI was right: no recession was dated, employment never broke. GDI has historically been the more recession-accurate measure — in 2007–08 it weakened quarters before GDP did.
Why the monitor doesn't track either
Quarterly, heavily revised, and available only with delay — GDP and GDI are too slow for a recession signal. But the divergence episodes matter for interpretation: when GDP and income data disagree, the income side's record on recession timing is slightly better — which is why labor and income signals anchor our nowcast.