Recession probability (Chauvet–Piger)
Smoothed probability of already being in recession.
The Chauvet–Piger smoothed recession probabilities estimate the likelihood that the economy is currently in recession, using the same four coincident series NBER weighs. Values that jump and stay elevated have historically aligned with the official dating — the market's best 'are we in one now' gauge.
Rule
{"type":"levels","levels":[{"state":"warning","op":">","threshold":20},{"state":"critical","op":">","threshold":50}],"exit_below":15}
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