All signals

Every indicator in the composite — what it measures, the exact rule that fires it, its current state, and a link to the raw FRED series.

Financial

• Yield curve inversion (10Y–3M)0.67 pp
• Yield curve inversion (10Y–2Y)0.38 pp
• Curve re-steepening0.67 pp
• Financial conditions (NFCI)-0.46
• Financial stress (STLFSI)-0.52

Credit

• High-yield credit spread3.48%
• BBB corporate spread1.16%
• Bank lending standards1.70%

Housing

• Building permits1.4M
• Housing starts1.2M
• Durable goods orders$345,371M

Labor

• Initial jobless claims195k
• Continued claims1718k
• Temporary help employment2.5M
• JOLTS labor flows7.5M

Composite

• NY Fed recession probability16.44 pp
• CFNAI activity index0.04
• Industrial production103.95

Nowcast

• Sahm rule0.00 pp
• Recession probability (Chauvet–Piger)0.40%
• Sahm — states6

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