NY Fed recession probability

OK · 16.54 pp · Composite · weight 2 · T10Y3M

12-month recession probability from the Treasury spread probit model.

The New York Fed's published probit model converts the 10Y–3M spread directly into a 12-month recession probability — the same spread we track, turned into a number. It is included as a signal in its own right and doubles as the basis for this site's model line.

Rule

{"type":"levels","levels":[{"state":"critical","op":">","threshold":40},{"state":"warning","op":">","threshold":30}],"exit_below":25}

Source series on FRED →

Glossary: NY Fed recession probability →

All signals · ← back