Curve re-steepening
Rapid rise of 10Y–3M spread after inversion — historically clusters near recession onset.
The dangerous moment historically is not the inversion itself but the rapid re-steepening afterwards — the curve un-inverts because the Fed starts cutting as the economy cracks. In 1990, 2001, 2007 and 2020 the re-steepening clustered around recession onset, making it a short-lead confirmation signal.
Rule
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Glossary: Yield curve re-steepening →
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