Yield curve inversion (10Y–3M)
10Y minus 3M Treasury spread below zero — the classic leading recession signal.
The 10-year minus 3-month Treasury spread is the single most-studied recession predictor: short rates above long rates mean the market expects cuts ahead — historically because growth is weakening. It has preceded every US recession since the late 1960s, with a typical lead of 6–18 months, though it flashed false alarms in 1966–67 and 2023–24.
Rule
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Glossary: Yield curve inversion →
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