Sahm rule

OK · 0.00 pp · Nowcast · weight 0 · SAHMREALTIME

Unemployment ≥0.5pp above 12m low — signals recession ONSET, not a forecast.

The Sahm rule fires when the 3-month average unemployment rate sits 0.5pp above its 12-month low — a near-perfect real-time recession-onset detector designed by Claudia Sahm. Crucially it timestamps the start of a recession rather than forecasting one; it belongs to the nowcast block and carries no forecast weight.

Rule

{"type":"levels","levels":[{"state":"critical","op":">=","threshold":0.5}],"exit_below":0.4}

Source series on FRED →

Glossary: The Sahm rule →

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