Building permits

OK · 1.4M · Housing · weight 1 · PERMIT

New housing permits falling YoY — early housing-cycle signal.

Building permits lead actual construction by months, and construction leads the cycle — housing has entered nearly every US recession first, sometimes two years early (2006 vs the 2007 peak). A sustained YoY decline is one of the slowest but most reliable warnings on the panel.

Rule

{"type":"yoy","op":"<","threshold":0,"warn":3,"critical":-10}

Source series on FRED →

Glossary: Building permits & housing starts →

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